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Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Yahoo's Chase to the Bottom
The Wall Street Journal

 
As Chevy Chase used to say on "Saturday Night Live," Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead. Updated for 2010: Yahoo is still sinking.

Despite the strategy outlined by Yahoo chief Carol Bartz on Wednesday to revive usage, Yahoo's outlook remains bleak. In the year to April, unique U.S. visitors to Yahoo rose 4%, well below the 10% growth for the Internet overall, according to comScore. Total minutes spent on Yahoo fell 11% in that period, while page views fell 13%, both compared with double-digit percentage increases for the Web generally. And comScore recently reported Facebook passed Yahoo in share of display-ad impressions—the number of times users saw an ad—in the first quarter. All this despite a big marketing push, recently renewed.

Ms. Bartz argues there is room for Yahoo to coexist with Facebook and Google because the three Web giants do different things—Facebook does social networks, Google search and Yahoo content and communications. To enhance its content offerings, Yahoo recently agreed to acquire Associated Content, which aggregates material from thousands of bloggers. Ms. Bartz told investors Wednesday a trial with Associated using local content in Cleveland and Detroit lifted user engagement.

But while Google and Facebook clearly have an edge in what they do, that is hardly true for Yahoo in content, one of the most competitive arenas on the Web. Not only is AOL pursuing a similar strategy, Yahoo is going up against the websites of traditional media folks like New York Times Co., Wall Street Journal publisher News Corp. and numerous other online media outlets. The fact Ms. Bartz doesn't have a background in journalism or content production puts her at a disadvantage.

Meanwhile, it is hard to be enthusiastic about Yahoo's hopes of reviving use of its email offering. Ms. Bartz blames weak engagement with Yahoo mail for hurting Yahoo's overall metrics. She plans to overhaul the email interface. But weaning people off alternatives requires them to change their email address, never easy.

The bottom line is that turning around a decline at an Internet company is tougher than elsewhere. That is at least partly because of the ease with which consumers can switch to a different website. Once a site's image is impaired, it is very hard to repair.

For the past year or so, the bull case for Yahoo largely rested on the roughly $10 a share of cash and investments, buttressed by the potential value of Yahoo's large audience. But with Yahoo's hold on its audience slipping, investors may want to disengage.