APPLE'S IPAD IN BIG TROUBLE

Original Story: USAToday.com

Less than two years ago, Apple's (ticker: AAPL) iPad absolutely dominated the tablet space. As of mid-2012, Apple still claimed nearly 70% of the tablet market, while Android tablet manufacturers were struggling to make any headway.

Furthermore, the iPad Mini's fall 2012 arrival was an open secret by then. As a result, tablet market analysts expected Apple to further solidify its dominance of the tablet market over time.

However, the opposite has occurred. Not only has Apple's market share lead crumbled, but iPad sales growth has also come to a crashing halt. Tablet rivals such as Amazon.com (AMZN) and Samsung are gaining momentum by closing the quality gap with Apple and offering lower price points. Unless Apple can deliver vastly improved iPads later this year, the iPad's growth days are over.

Where did all the iPad buyers go?

It's hard to imagine right now, but just two years ago, Apple was growing iPad revenue by more than 60% and iPad unit sales by 80% -- even without an entry in the growing 7- and 8-inch tablet market! Last year, despite the addition of the iPad Mini, unit sales growth slowed to 22%.

Furthermore, Apple introduced the iPad Mini at a lower price point to combat cheap tablets from Amazon.com and other vendors. This led to a sharp drop in the average iPad selling price. As a result, iPad revenue grew only 3% in FY13. While iPad production costs are falling, it's safe to say that with iPad unit sales growth outpacing revenue growth 22% to 3%, iPad margins dropped dramatically.

iPad revenue growth did tick up to 7% last fall on a 14% increase in unit sales. However, that may prove to be Apple's best quarter of the new fiscal year. Demand appears to have fallen off a cliff after the holiday season.

As of Dec. 28 -- the last day of Apple's fiscal Q1 -- the iPad Air and iPad Mini Retina combined to account for 8.6% of all iPad usage, according to Fiksu. By the last day of Q2, usage for the new iPads had grown to 14.1% of the total, a 5.5 percentage point increase.

Considering that Apple benefited from "channel fill" in Q1 -- selling the new iPads to build up inventory at third-party retailers -- iPad unit sales could easily have fallen 40% sequentially this quarter. That would entail a significant step backward from Apple's 19.5 million iPad sales in Q2 last year, when Apple was meeting pent-up demand for the original iPad Mini.

The iPad Mini Retina is a flop

If I had to boil down Apple's iPad problems to a single issue, it's that the new iPad Mini Retina is a flop. After five months on the market, the iPad Mini Retina accounts for just 3.7% of all iPad usage (as of Thursday). By contrast, the third-generation iPad (the first to offer a Retina display) still accounts for 13.6% of iPad usage, even though it was on the market for less than eight months in 2012.

To some extent, weak sales of the iPad Mini Retina could be the result of a crowded iPad market. For just $100 more, tablet buyers can get a whole lot of extra screen real estate with the iPad Air. Alternatively, the original iPad Mini is $100 cheaper and offers "good enough" specs for many users.

However, there's also a quality issue. To be sure, the iPad Mini Retina has gotten good reviews from some respected publications. That said, many reviewers have found that Amazon's Kindle Fire HDX offers a much higher-quality display than the iPad Mini Retina.

This is a big problem for Apple, which spent most of 2012 training consumers to demand high-quality Retina displays for their mobile devices. Not only is Amazon offering lower price points -- the Kindle Fire HDX starts at $229 for the 7-inch version and $379 for the 8.9-inch version -- but it's also offering better quality on at least one critical feature.

Will Apple reclaim the lead?

In some respects, Apple's commanding lead in the tablet market remains intact. There are far more iPad-optimized apps than tablet-optimized Android apps. Even though Apple's technical lead has shrunk (or disappeared, perhaps), it still offers a superior overall user experience. That's a major reason iPad usage still dwarfs usage of all other tablets combined.

The iPad can still be a meaningful contributor to Apple's profitability even if sales growth remains small. As long as engagement remains high and the installed base of iPads increases, Apple can take a page out of Amazon.com's playbook by making money while people use their iPads: by selling apps, books, movies, and so on.

Indeed, strong iPad usage is undoubtedly one of the factors driving big gains in Apple's revenue from iTunes and the App Store. This revenue stream will become increasingly important to Apple's earnings in the next few years. However, what Apple shareholders really want to see is a return to solid sales growth for the iPad -- even if it continues losing market share.

Apple needs to double down on display quality if it wants to reignite iPad sales growth.

To reignite iPad sales growth, Apple may need to become somewhat more aggressive on pricing for the iPad Mini Retina. More importantly, it needs to make the display at least as good as what Amazon and other competitors are offering (and preferably better). Adding a faster processor and a fingerprint sensor may help sales a bit, but improving the display is the X-factor.

Foolish final thoughts

While I remain bullish about Apple's long-term prospects, the iPad no longer appears to be a major part of the Apple growth story -- aside from its role in driving content and app sales. iPad sales have stagnated in the last year, and the introduction of two new iPads last fall provided only a modest short-term sales bump.

To reverse this discouraging trend, Apple needs to double down on its pursuit of perfection for the next iPad Mini. If Apple can deliver an updated iPad Mini Retina with a best-in-class display this fall, it could rejuvenate iPad sales, especially if Apple can lower the price. Otherwise, investors may need to look to other product lines for long-term growth.

Apple’s Siri Changes Voice Technology

First appeared in Fox Business

Apple Inc. will again dominate conversations at CES, the world's biggest technology showcase. Only this time, the talk is extending beyond iPad and iPhone chatter to include "Siri," the voice app that is capturing consumers' imagination.

Apple's dulcet-voiced, speech-controlled personal assistant, a key factor in making the iPhone 4S a blockbuster, has breathed new life into the once-obscure and oft-maligned world of speech-recognition technology.

Siri, which can do everything from taking dictation for text messages and entering calendar appointments to answering general-knowledge questions, has intrigued users. Experts say it demonstrated emphatically that voice recognition has moved beyond the days of misheard commands, narrowly defined keywords and anguishingly slow speeds.

The smartphone industry is now scrambling to match and better Apple's offering. Google Inc and Microsoft Corp will likely want to cash in on an explosion of interest in an area they have invested in for years, without getting anything like the attention Siri is attracting.

"All the mobile phone manufacturers are investing in speech, expanding investments in speech, creating more elegant designs and integrating it more deeply into phones," said Michael Thompson, senior vice president for mobile at voice-recognition specialist Nuance.

Thompson was coy about his company's future plans but said he expects voice to be a central topic at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas as device makers jostle for attention from investors, media and consumers.

While voice is expected to be used in many areas of consumer electronics, the technology is particularly pertinent to cellphones because it simplifies functions from Web surfing to typing.

Internet merchants like eBay are also jumping on the bandwagon. And reports have emerged about a voice-control for TVS from South Korea's LG Electronics just before CES, which will open its doors in Las Vegas this week.

Many companies at CES are not yet ready to showcase products that can match or outdo Siri, Forrester Research analyst Charles Golvin said. But he said he expects the current flurry of activity to result in big voice product advancements in coming years as the technology is perfected.

Apple's rivals are planning to ship phones with improved speech technology in the fall, in time for the 2012 year-end holiday season, said Thompson at Nuance, which supplies and licenses technology to Apple but has its own voice app.

Even traditional PC makers will jump on the bandwagon: Intel announced at CES on Monday it will adopt Nuance's "Dragon NaturallySpeaking" voice-command technology on ultra-thin laptops -- dubbed UltraBooks -- coming out this year from the likes of Dell and Hewlett Packard.

"Voice as an input mechanism is going to be more and more useful and more and more prevalent," Golvin said. "Consumers have a lot of bad historical experience with it. They are going to encounter good voice interfaces more and more."

BANDWAGON ROLLS ON

Experts say the technology will evolve as more consumers get acclimated to it.

The interest in voice is already sparking acquisitions, with Nuance setting its sights on phones based on Google's Android operating system. Last month, it bought Vlingo, a developer of voice-control apps for a phones based on Android.

Android phone manufacturers -- all major rivals of Apple -- include Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, HTC Corp and Motorola Mobility, which Google is buying.

In the meantime, some developers are helping phone makers bridge the gap. A new app called "Ask Ziggy," launched a few weeks ago on Microsoft Windows-based smartphones, is generating buzz among users as it allows them to update Facebook, Twitter, answer texts and questions -- all through speech.

The free app helps a Windows phone mimic Siri's features and is already one of the top downloaded apps in its category.

"There's been a lot of interest globally," said Ask Ziggy developer Shai Leib, who told Reuters his inbox has been flooded with feedback from users, some even from Microsoft employees.

Leib plans to incorporate speech technology further in the app, to make phones completely hands-free. Microsoft's gesture-based Xbox Kinect gaming system has also raised the possibility of using hand gestures to manipulate screens and execute commands -- the so-called "Minority Report" interface named after the Tom Cruise sci-fi vehicle.

"With the success of the Microsoft Kinect and Apple's Siri, new ways to interface with CE devices have suddenly become top of mind," Ben Arnold, NPD's director of industry analysis, wrote in a blogpost last week. "I expect several companies to exhibit products using some of these new interface methods in an effort to differentiate themselves."

Leib argues there's nothing to stop smartphones also adopting gesture-recognition.

"The next level is to improve the speech, grammar and make the answers a little bit more conversational," he said. "The possibilities are amazing, especially with Kinect."

"I am looking forward to see what's going to happen with Windows 8 and if there are going to be future updates on the Windows phone that can recognize gestures."

HISTORY OF SPEECH

Apple was not the first to incorporate speech on phones. Google has had speech-recognition applications for Android smartphones for more than two years, and is now possibly trying to beef up its capabilities through the recent acquisition of a company called Alfred.

Alfred uses artificial-intelligence technology to sift through the Web's vast trove of data and recommend restaurants, bars and other real-world places users might like. Some experts say the technology could provide an important building-block that Google could pair with existing voice-recognition technology to create its own answer to Siri.

E-commerce companies are also playing catch-up, not wanting to be caught flat-footed should consumers become more comfortable using voice to search the Web and shop online.

EBay is planning a voice and image-based search function for its online market and "Red Laser" price-checking mobile software.

EBay Chief Executive John Donahoe has said he believes Siri is just the beginning, and sees a future where users can speak their preferences into phones to narrow down shopping choices.

Dan Miller of San Francisco-based Opus Research agrees. He was particularly intrigued by reports last November of an acquistion by Amazon.com of Yap, whose software coverts voice to text.

"The clock is ticking. In the next year or year and half expect a talking Kindle that supports commerce," Miller said.

Miller, who has studied voice technology for about 25 years, said he is gratified by the sudden spotlight on voice as he recalls years of consumer frustration over automated customer serivce systems.

"We're really happy to see this much positive attention," he said, "As opposed to "Oh the machine doesn't understand me."